For a couple years now, it’s seemed like a dark shadow of warning lurks behind every piece of good news. So when a respected publication like the Atlantic – not known for terminal optimism – publishes a quietly optimistic piece that says that the growth in delinquincies on commercial mortgages has been slowing for a year already, it’s hard not to feel a brief wave of relief.
This data hardly indicates that all problems are behind the commercial mortgage market, but it does suggest that a recovery probably isn’t far off. And indeed, Wall Street appears to agree. The frozen CMBS market began to very slowly thaw last year. Little by little, we saw more deals getting done, and according to a new report, some big banks are preparing $4 billion in CMBS to hit the market very soon.
The main piece of data it refers to is this:
Note it doesn’t say delinquincies are falling yet. But when you’re on the Titanic heading for the iceberg, you at least want the ship to be turning in the right direction. Read the whole piece (not too long) here.