Today’s dose of optimism comes from Cushman & Wakefield’s US operations, via a blog post by its senior economist Ken McCarthy. He says his cautious optimism a year ago was met with scepticism, but that events are proving him correct.
After US GDP increased at a 1.7% annual rate in the second quarter and 2.6% rate in the third quarter, the consensus just a few months ago was that the economy would continue to grow slowly in 2011. Today forecasters are racing up revise their forecasts upward. I wouldn’t be surprised to see US GDP growth of 4.5% in 2011 with payroll employment growth somewhere in the 3.0 million range. The US economy is about to shift into high gear.
It’s easy to discount optimists, but if that becomes the overriding mood of the market, it can be dangerous to fight the tide. Just look at the profits you could have made if you’d invested in stocks a couple years ago. But that’s a different sort of debate. Read the whole post here.